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Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Mood of the Nation Survey, Round 1

The Mood of the Nation Survey was conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi for ABP News between May 1 and May 15, 2017 among 11,373 respondents spread across 19 States of India - Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The survey was conducted at 584 locations in 146 Assembly Constituencies (ACs). Each AC was located in a different Parliamentary Constituency (PC). The total sample size targeted was 12,000 with an AC-wise target of about 80-85 interviews. The number of ACs to be sampled in a State was determined based on the percentage share of that particular State’s electorate in the total/combined electorate of all 19 states. The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. The ACs where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected using from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations.

Once we identified our sample of the electorate, trained investigators were sent to meet them. They were asked to interview only those whose names were given to them, however at some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements/substitutions. Our investigators sat down in the homes of people whose names were selected from the electoral roll and asked them a detailed set of questions which could take up to 20-25 minutes. While asking the question on who they would vote for if Lok Sabha elections are held now, we gave them a dummy ballot paper on which they could mark their choice. They were then asked to place the ballot paper in a dummy ballot box. The process was designed to ensure that the people interviewed knew they would remain anonymous. This enabled us to collect detailed information about the respondents' work and background. The questionnaire we presented to our sample of voters was designed in the language mainly spoken in the respondents’ State.

Our aim was to provide a sample of the electorate across the States of India which was as representative of the whole of Indian electorate as was practicably possible. We are confident that we used the best possible methodology to achieve this task. The achieved sample is broadly representative of the Indian population, in terms of the country's general demographic profile.

For our all-India analysis, we adjusted the figures using a statistical technique known as weighting, which means that each State was proportionately represented in the analysis. This means that we were able to produce an accurate assessment of regional and State level situations, as well as having a balanced and authoritative overview at the national level.

The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti, CSDS. The team included Asmita Aasaavari, Arushi Gupta, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Sana Salim, Souradeep Banerjee, Shashwat Dhar, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.

The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu (Andhra Pradesh), Dhruba Pratim Sharma (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Anupama Saxena and Shamshad Ansari (Chhattisgarh), Biswajeet Mohanty (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar and Mahashweta Jani (Gujarat), Kushal Pal and Anita Agarwal (Haryana), Harishwar Dayal (Jharkhand), Veena Devi and Reetika Syal (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Gyanaranjan Swain (Odisha), Jagroop Kaur (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth (Rajasthan), Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), A.K. Verma, Asmer Beg, and Sudhir Khare (Uttar Pradesh) and Suprio Basu and Jyoti Prasad Chatterjee (West Bengal).

 

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