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POST POLL ANALYSIS 2022

Lokniti-CSDS conducted post-poll surveys in Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the February-March 2022 round of State assembly elections. The surveys were conducted February 15 through February 25, 2022 in Goa, February 21 through February 28 in Punjab, February 11 to March 9 in Uttar Pradesh and February 15 through February 23 in Uttarakhand.

In Goa, the survey was conducted among 2066 voters at 80 polling stations spread across 20 assembly constituencies, in Punjab among 4668 voters at 180 polling stations of 45 assembly constituencies, in Uttar Pradesh among 7211 voters at 280 polling stations in 70 assembly constituencies, and in Uttarakhand among 2690 voters at 104 polling stations spread across 26 constituencies. The sampling design adopted was multi-stage systematic random sampling (SRS). The constituencies were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the SRS method. In each polling station, 40 voters were randomly sampled from the electoral roll using the SRS method. Of these 40, 26 interviews were targeted. The interviews were conducted face-to-face at electors’ homes after voting had taken place in their area.

All interviews were conducted by the field investigators on their smartphones using a specially designed application. The questionnaire designed for the interviews was a standardized semi-structured one. In Goa, the interviews were conducted in Konkani and Marathi mostly, in Punjab in Punjabi, and in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in Hindi. The interview duration across all States was about 15-20 minutes on average. 

THE TEAM THAT CONDUCTED THE SURVEY
In Goa, the survey was coordinated and supervised by Alaknanda Shringare and Ravaji Gaonkar (Goa University), in Punjab by Jagroop Sekhon, Baljit Singh and Dawinder Kaur (Khalsa College, Amritsar), Jagroop Kaur and Jatinder Singh (Punjabi University, Patiala) and Varun Goel and Amrinder Singh (LRDAV College, Jagraon),  in Uttar Pradesh by Mirza Asmer Beg and Mosaib Ahmad (Aligarh Muslim University), Shashikant Pandey and Ranjana Upadhyay (Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow), Akhilesh Pal (Allahabad University, Prayagraj) and Sudhir Khare and Shilpa Tripathi (Azamgarh) and in Uttarakhand by Rakesh Negi and Surendra Kunwar (Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar), Bharti Sharma (Graphic Era Hill University, Dehradun) and Vidhi Goel (Uttaranchal University). Prof. Sanjay Kumar of Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi directed the survey.

Based on the post poll survey data, Lokniti conducted a detailed analysis of the election outcomes in The Hindu newspaper between March 12 and 15, 2022. Given below are all the articles that were published in The Hindu.  

OVERVIEW

UTTAR PRADESH

PUNJAB

UTTARAKHAND

GOA

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