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DELHI ELECTION ANALYSIS

Photo credit: Manjesh Rana

DELHI ELECTION-EVE SURVEY 2020

An election-eve survey was conducted in Delhi by the Lokniti programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) during the final week of campaigning for the Delhi assembly elections. The survey was conducted from January 31 through February 6, 2020 among 3,335 voters in 175 locations (polling stations) spread across 35 Assembly Constituencies of the capital. The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. After selecting every second Assembly Constituency of the Capital, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Nearly 90 field investigators, a majority of who were students from different colleges and universities of Delhi, conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions. The interviews were conducted at every fifth house of a polling station in order to ensure randomness. The interview duration was about 30 minutes on average. The final data set has been weighted by the actual vote shares secured by the AAP, BJP+ and Congress+ in the election. All analysis here has been presented on the weighted data set. The survey was supervised by a team of 5 supervisors from Lokniti which included Shreyas Sardesai, Manjesh Rana, Sakshi Khemani, Amritanshu Patnaik and Muzamil Yaqoob. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar of CSDS.  

The survey findings were published in The Indian Express (Delhi edition) between 13 and 15 February, 2020. 

13 February - Delhi Assembly elections 2020: How the capital voted — and why - https://indianexpress.com/elections/delhi-assembly-elections-aap-victory-governance-bjp-6265111/

13 February - Delhi Assembly elections: Vikas mattered most; backing CAA did not mean backing BJP - https://indianexpress.com/elections/delhi-assembly-elections-aap-bjp-caa-development-6265105/ 

13 February - Delhi Assembly elections: Shaheen Bagh had resonance but not impact, BJP overestimated gains - https://indianexpress.com/elections/delhi-elections-shaheen-bagh-bjp-aap-6265100/

14 February - Stunning gender gap: Women voters powered AAP’s landslide in Delhi - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/stunning-gender-gap-women-voters-powered-aaps-landslide-in-delhi-6267107/    

14 February - Youth backed young party: 3 in 5 voted AAP in Delhi elections - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/youth-backed-young-party-3-in-5-voted-aap-in-delhi-elections-6267069/   

14 February - Delhi polls: AAP— Catch-all party that brought communities, castes under one net - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/aap-delhi-elections-2020-communities-castes-under-one-net-6267070/   

14 February - BJP found favour with migrants in Capital - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/bjp-delhi-polls-2020-6267082 /

15 February - Arvind Kejriwal: Aam aadmi, khaas appeal - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-assembly-elections-arvind-kejriwal-aam-aadmi-party-6268847/

15 February - Delhi assembly election results: Popularity cut across class, only poor voted AAP a myth - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-assembly-election-results-aam-aadmi-party-arvind-kejriwal-bjp-6268851/

15 February - Delhi assembly election results: Power to buses, AAP benefits reached almost all - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-assembly-election-results-aam-aadmi-party-electricity-water-buses-6268852/  

 

DELHI GOVERNANCE SURVEY 2019

Between 22 November and 3 December, 2019, the Lokniti programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) conducted a comprehensive opinion survey among the voters of Delhi. The survey was conducted in the context of the soon to be held Delhi Assembly elections and aimed at capturing the perception of voters on the issues pertaining to governance in the city and their assessment of the work done by the Aam Aadmi Party-led Delhi government on water, electricity, health, education, public transport and air quality during the last five years. The survey was conducted among 2,298 voters in 115 locations (polling stations) spread across 23 Assembly Constituencies of the capital. The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. The Assembly Constituencies were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Nearly 50 trained field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions on mostly governance-related matters. The interviews were conducted at every fifth house of a polling station in order to ensure randomness. The interview duration was about 30 minutes on average. The survey was designed, supervised and analysed by a team of researchers associated with Lokniti. They include Shreyas Sardesai, Biswajit Mohanty, Himanshu Bhattarcharya, Manjesh Rana, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Vibha Attri, Jyoti Mishra, Sakshi Khemani, Aditya Pandey, Neel Madhav, Fakru Zzaman, Deepti Mary Minj, Muzamil Yaqoob and Jagannath Kashyap. Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri guided the research team in analysing the data. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar of CSDS.  Lokniti would like to acknowledge the support of Durba Chattaraj of Ashoka University who partially supported this survey with the Franklin Research Grant of the American Philosophical Society.

The survey findings were published in The Indian Express (Delhi edition) between 10 and 14 December, 2019. 

10 December - Capital worry: Pollution  - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/capital-worry-pollution-delhi-assembly-elections-aam-aadmi-party-6158923/

11 December - Delhi governance survey: Testing the twin pillars of health and education - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-governance-survey-testing-the-twin-pillars-of-health-and-education-6160608/

12 December - Delhi governance survey: Bijli, paani, road to polls - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-governance-survey-bijli-paani-road-to-polls-6162592/

13 December - Delhi commuters as voters - https://indianexpress.com/article/india/delhi-commuters-as-voters-metro-bus-women-6164369/

14 December - Response to politics and policy - https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/response-to-politics-and-policy-delhi-voters-aap-arvind-kejriwal-6166051/

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