Assembly Election Studies in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat

Lokniti in collaboration with CNN IBN and The Week conducted Pre Poll and Post Poll Surveys in the states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh in the months of October, November and December 2012.

During the Pre Poll survey, conducted in the middle of October 2012, a total of 2,014 persons in Himachal Pradesh and 3,661 in Gujarat were interviewed in sampled Polling Stations spread across randomly selected Assembly Constituencies. 30 Assembly Constituencies were selected in Himachal Pradesh and 60 in Gujarat using the Probability Proportionate to Size method. Within each selected assembly constituency, four polling stations were randomly selected using the Systematic Random Sampling technique. The respondents were selected from the most updated electoral rolls of the selected polling stations. Keeping in mind, the probability of non completion of interviews amongst all the selected respondents we adopted the technique of over sampling of respondents. In the case of Himachal Pradesh, the Pre Poll survey was held two weeks before actual voting, and in the case of Gujarat it was held two months prior to actual voting.

During the Post Poll survey a total of 2,330 persons in Himachal Pradesh and 3,749 in Gujarat were interviewed. The Post Poll survey in Himachal Pradesh was conducted a few days after actual voting in the first week of November 2012. In order to study the shift in people’s mood between the Pre and Post Poll surveys, the Post Poll survey was conducted in the same 30 Assembly constituencies where the Pre Poll survey was conducted. The respondents for the Post Poll survey were also kept the same, barring three Assembly constituencies where they were changed as the achieved sample size during the Pre Poll exercise was found to be much less than the target. Apart from this, two more Assembly constituencies were added to the sample in order to correct the relative under-representation of two districts in the Pre Poll survey. The Post Poll Survey in Gujarat was conducted in December 2012 at the respondents’ homes in the 24-hour period after actual voting ended in each of the two phases. In order to study the shift in people’s mood between the Pre and Post Poll surveys, the Post Poll survey was conducted in the same 60 Assembly constituencies where the Pre Poll survey was conducted. The respondents were also kept the same.

In both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, the interviews during the Pre and Post Poll surveys were conducted by specially trained field investigators. Before sending the investigators to the field for data collection, they were imparted training in survey research and data collection.

The spread of the sample for Pre and Post Poll Surveys

	Himachal Pradesh		Gujarat
	Pre Poll	Post Poll	Pre Poll	Post Poll
Number of Constituencies where survey was conducted	30	32	60	60
Number of Polling Stations where survey was conducted	119	128	239	239
Number of respondents targeted	3,600	3,840	7,200	7,200
Total respondents interviewed (Sample size)	2,014	2,330	3,661	3,749

The fieldwork for the surveys was coordinated by Ramesh K Chauhan and his team in Himachal Pradesh, and by Mahashweta M. Jani and Bhanu M. Parmar and their team in Gujarat. The team that designed, co-ordinated and analyzed the survey at CSDS comprised of Anuradha Singh, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Maria Mathew, Pranav Gupta, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Prof. Suhas Palshikar gave his inputs and suggestions. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey.